☀ SOLAR WATCH
Sunspot Cycle Analysis • Solar Flare Monitoring • Propagation Forecast • G7SYQ
▶ SOLAR CYCLE 25 / 26 FORECAST◀
Cycle 25 Peak
2024
SSN = 154.7 — SILSO data
Next Peak (Cycle 26)
~2035.5
Projected — sinusoidal model
Avg Cycle Length
11.0 yr
Based on last 8 cycles
Avg Peak SSN
188
Last 8 cycle average
Current Phase
DECLINING
Post-maximum, heading to minimum ~2030
☀ SUNSPOT CYCLE CHART — 15-YEAR FORECAST
SILSO DATA
Historical data: SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium — CC BY-NC 4.0
Shaded region = forecast period (sinusoidal model, avg of 8 preceding cycles)
Green dotted line = projected Cycle 26 peak ≈ 2035.5 • Forecast SSN ≈ 188
Shaded region = forecast period (sinusoidal model, avg of 8 preceding cycles)
Green dotted line = projected Cycle 26 peak ≈ 2035.5 • Forecast SSN ≈ 188
△ SOLAR CYCLE PEAK HISTORY
CYCLES 18–26| Cycle | Peak Year | Peak SSN | Cycle Length | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 1947.5 | 214.7 | 10 yr | Post-war maximum |
| 19 | 1957.5 | 269.3 | 10 yr | Strongest on modern record |
| 20 | 1968.5 | 150.0 | 11 yr | Weaker cycle |
| 21 | 1979.5 | 220.1 | 11 yr | Very active; 10m/6m openings |
| 22 | 1989.5 | 211.1 | 10 yr | Great Geomagnetic Storm 1989 |
| 23 | 2000.5 | 173.9 | 11 yr | Dot-com solar max; strong X-flares |
| 24 | 2014.5 | 113.3 | 14 yr | Weakest in a century; long minimum |
| 25 | 2024.5 | 154.7 | 10 yr | Exceeded predictions; still provisional |
| 26 (proj) | ~2035.5 | ~188 | ~11 yr | Sinusoidal model forecast |
▶ CYCLE ANALYSIS & FORECAST METHOD
How the Forecast Works
The projection uses a sinusoidal model fitted to the average of the last 8 solar cycle peaks. The average cycle length is 11.0 years, matching the well-established Schwabe cycle.
With Cycle 25 peaking at SSN 154.7 in mid-2024, the next maximum (Cycle 26) is projected around mid-2035, with a forecast peak SSN of approximately 188 — broadly average for modern cycles.
The solar minimum (trough between Cycles 25 and 26) is expected around 2030–2031, when HF conditions will be at their poorest for high bands.
Amateur Radio Implications (G7SYQ)
Solar activity directly controls HF propagation. At cycle maximum (2024), 10m and 12m were excellent for DX. As SSN falls through 2026–2030, expect 10m/12m to become unreliable and 20m/17m/15m to become the primary DX bands.
Sporadic-E (Es) propagation is not strongly correlated with solar cycle and peaks every May–August regardless. Es can produce spectacular 6m and 10m openings even at solar minimum.
From IO93 (Lincolnshire), Es paths to southern Europe and beyond are common June–July. Monitor 28–50 MHz around midday.
⚡ SOLAR FLARE & SPACE WEATHER
NOAA / SWPCCYCLE 25 FLARE ACTIVITY — SUMMARY
Solar Cycle 25 produced exceptional X-class flare activity in 2024: over 50 X-class flares with 20 at or above X2.0. The October 2024 peak was accompanied by significant CME events and widespread aurora visible as far south as Lincolnshire. By 2025 activity had declined with only 19 X-class flares recorded, consistent with the post-maximum declining phase.
FLARE CLASSIFICATION
Solar flares are classified A → B → C → M → X by peak soft X-ray flux. X-class are major events; M-class cause short-wave fadeouts on the sunlit side of Earth. Each class is 10× stronger than the previous. X-flares above X5 can cause HF blackouts lasting hours on the entire sunlit hemisphere — including the UK in daylight.
Source: SpaceWeather.com
2026 OUTLOOK
The declining phase of Cycle 25 continues through 2026. M-class flares remain likely but major X-class events will become less frequent. The solar flux index (SFI) has fallen from a high of ~240 in 2024 to around 120–130 in early 2026, reflecting declining sunspot activity. Good for avoiding blackouts; less good for 10m DX.
Source: Space.com — 2026 Aurora Outlook
LIVE SPACE WEATHER — USEFUL LINKS
✈ SPORADIC-E PROPAGATION (Es)
IO93 LINCOLNSHIREWHAT IS SPORADIC-E?
Sporadic-E is the formation of thin, dense ionised patches in the E-layer (~90–130 km altitude). Unlike F-layer propagation, Es is not driven by solar activity — it occurs year-round with a strong seasonal peak in summer. It can open 6m (50 MHz), 10m (28 MHz), and 12m (24 MHz) for contacts of 1,000–2,500 km with no warning. Paths from Lincolnshire commonly reach southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East.
Source: Electronics Notes — Sporadic-E
SEASONAL Es ACTIVITY — NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
JAN
5%
FEB
5%
MAR
15%
APR
25%
MAY ▶
65%
JUN
90%
JUL
80%
AUG
45%
SEP
20%
OCT
10%
NOV
5%
DEC
15%
BAND CONDITIONS OUTLOOK — 2026 DECLINING PHASE
160m
1.8 MHz
GOOD
Night DX, low noise
80m
3.5 MHz
GOOD
Reliable at all times
40m
7 MHz
GOOD
Best day/night DX band
20m
14 MHz
GOOD
Primary DX 2026
17m
18 MHz
MODERATE
Good daylight DX
15m
21 MHz
MODERATE
Patchy; good peaks
12m
24 MHz
Es ONLY
Sporadic-E summer
10m
28 MHz
Es ONLY
Es / occasional F2
6m
50 MHz
SPORADIC-E
Magic band — Jun/Jul
Es MONITORING RESOURCES
ⓘ DATA LICENCE & ATTRIBUTION
SILSO SUNSPOT DATA — CC BY-NC 4.0
The sunspot number data used in this analysis and chart is from the
SILSO World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the International Sunspot Number,
Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.
Filename:
This data is published under the Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) licence (https://goo.gl/PXrLYd), which permits:
• Share — copy and redistribute in any medium or format
• Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
Provided that:
• Attribution — appropriate credit is given and a link to the licence included
• NonCommercial — the material is not used for commercial purposes
• No additional restrictions — no additional legal terms may be applied
This page is a non-commercial personal project by Andy Orchiston (G7SYQ) / orcnet.co.uk.
SN_y_tot_V2.0.csvThis data is published under the Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) licence (https://goo.gl/PXrLYd), which permits:
• Share — copy and redistribute in any medium or format
• Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
Provided that:
• Attribution — appropriate credit is given and a link to the licence included
• NonCommercial — the material is not used for commercial purposes
• No additional restrictions — no additional legal terms may be applied
This page is a non-commercial personal project by Andy Orchiston (G7SYQ) / orcnet.co.uk.
Data source: SILSO Data Files — sidc.be
Sunspot data: SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium — CC BY-NC 4.0 •
Space weather: NOAA SWPC •
Chart generated with Python / matplotlib •
OrcNet Solar Watch — orcnet.co.uk
Last updated:
Last updated: